Europeans can't wait to push iPhone's buttons

PARIS: Few mobile phones have created more buzz before becoming a reality than Apple's iPhone.
For weeks, European übergeeks and telecommunications analysts have been angling for a chance to sign the nondisclosure agreement Apple requires before bestowing devices on early users.
For the rest of us in Europe, there are two crucial questions: When and how?
Apple says U.S. sales of iPhones will begin next month, followed later this year in Europe and next year in Asia.
Apple's silence on how the iPhone will be distributed in Europe has prompted speculation about operator alliances and retail partnerships.
The approach in the fragmented European market will almost certainly be different from the one employed in the U.S. rollout, which initially will involve an exclusive deal with AT&T. For providers of mobile phone services, the stakes could be high as a result of the strong brand loyalty Apple products enjoy.
Almost half of current iPod owners have said they would consider the iPhone as their next mobile phone, according to a survey of 2,000 Europeans conducted by Canalys, a research firm based in Reading, England.
An online poll conducted in April by the British online publisher Shiny Media found that 25 percent of those surveyed would be willing to switch service providers to own an iPhone.
In the face of increased competition, service providers will seek to differentiate themselves by carrying the iPhone, said Thomas Husson, an analyst for Jupiter Research in Paris.
A determining factor in who will offer the iPhone in Europe is whether it includes the 3G technology that service providers across the Continent have spent so much money on to acquire.
At least initially, iPhones sold in the United States will not employ 3G technology.
If European versions do, the two most likely beneficiaries would be 3, which has 3G licenses in Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom, and T-Mobile, which has 3G licenses in Germany, Great Britain and Austria.
"Both these operators are the most forward-thinking in how 3G telephones should be brought to consumers," said Carolina Milanesi, a mobile phone analyst in London at Gartner Research.
In the case of 3, Milanesi cited the company's new X Series package, which offers a flat rate for data transmission. This has encouraged some users to link their cellphones to the Slingbox, a device that transmits a home cable TV signal to the Internet.
The story would be different at T-Mobile, which has abandoned the "walled garden" approach to selling services that requires costumers to use proprietary products, Milanesi said.
"T-Mobile uses the Internet itself and Google as service and content providers," Milanesi said. "This stands in total contrast to the Vodaphone approach."
Although Vodaphone is the largest service provider on the Continent, Milanesi said its underlying business model might not dovetail easily with the Apple universe.
Vodaphone currently uses its own service, Vodaphone Live, to sell songs to mobile phone users, so Milanesi said the Apple iTunes service could be viewed as a direct competitor.
If the iPhone does not initially support 3G in Europe, Apple may prefer to combine a range of service providers with a robust retail strategy, said Husson of Jupiter Research.
Adopting that strategy will require Apple to balance the subsidies operators can give on the phones against Apple's own sales. "Too large an operator subsidy would kill Apple's own highly profitable retail sales.
Neil Mawston, an analyst at the U.K.-based Strategy Analytics, said Apple had done an excellent job with the first two legs of market entry - strong brand and strong product - leaving the third leg, distribution, to be decided.
"Geeks and early adopters are the first people Apple will want to target, using the highest margins," Mawston said. "After that it moves on to younger people who will rely on operator subsidies."
Consumers are not the only ones listening to the buzz, Mawston said.
"I cannot imagine that Nokia, which has a 30 to 40 percent market share in Europe, will stay quiet," Mawston said. "There should be some exciting months ahead."